Slow down the speed of updating CPUs now, Intel

Intel has been showing a continued weakness recently. In addition to the uncertainty of the 14A process and the weak sales of consumer processors, it has also been invested by the US government by nearly 10%, which means that every word and deed will no longer have the freedom of pure private enterprises.

Despite this, Intel has not stopped the pace of product updates, and even the leaked product roadmap can be seen that Intel will launch two new platforms on the mobile side next year. The opponent AMD duck paddled and would not even launch a new architecture before 2027. What is Intel's restlessness?

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Indeed, despite the poor company's condition, we can see from the leaked mobile roadmap that will still have two new platforms next year: Arrow Lake Refresh, which aims to be highly efficient, and Panther Lake, which undertakes Arrow Lake H and Lunar Lake. But rival AMD has slowed down this time. Judging from the known leak information, next year's Gorgon Point will still maintain the same Zen 5 architecture as the current Strix Point; on the high-performance side, there will still be the existing Fire Range to fight Intel's Arrow Lake Refresh.

Of course, if the performance of Arrow Lake Refresh and Panther Lake is excellent, it may be possible to slightly reverse the weak situation of consumer CPUs, but in fact, the current consumer processor update speed is really too fast. Although the speed of updates every year from the perspective of semiconductor industry is to follow the Morrow Law: the first year is a small update of the existing architecture, and the second year is a major update of the replacement of the architecture, this update speed is actually at least on the consumer side and the user has been disconnected from the consumer processor. First, the performance is too low for most users, and second, even if iterative updates are limited by the process approaching the bottle, the efficiency increase is limited. So many times, consumers are not able to recognize this product at all, and the next generation of products is already on the string.

The consumer processor update speed has exceeded demand, so what about performance and efficiency?

The author is not sure why Intel abides by Morse's law in this way (maybe because the person who proposed Morse's law was one of the founders of Intel?), but the author really suggests that Intel should take advantage of this time to slow down, especially when the company urgently needs to clear its development route. From the perspective of the product, although the existing Arrow Lake is good in terms of energy efficiency, it definitely has room for improvement in performance. In addition, its opponents have recently begun to slow down the update speed of architecture, so it is actually reasonable to take advantage of this time to polish the performance of Arrow Lake.

Panther Lake has a significant meaning for Intel, because it is Intel's first product to catch up with Taiwan's electricity in the process (18A). But its CEO Chen Liwu also previously announced that 18A will not be released to external customers and will become the 14A's transition process internally. Although writers also want to see where Intel's current advanced process can go, if the company focuses on 14A, it is better to let Panther Lake adopt 14A and postpone its listing. Anyway, the existing Arrow Lake H still has room for improvement, and the energy efficiency part will be Lunar Lake, so AMD will not be able to ask for it.

In summary, the update speed of contemporary consumer processors has exceeded the needs of users, and because the update speed is too fast, the performance difference between iterations is getting smaller and smaller, which is not what consumers expect. Compared with its continuous impetuous launch of products that disappoint the market, it is better to be stable and focus on improving the efficiency and efficiency brought by architectural iteration.

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